Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets Pick and Prediction

• Date: June 2, 2024
• Event: Citi Field
• Starting pitchers:
  • Brandon Pfaadt – D-Backs
  • Jose Quintana – Mets

Betting Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Win Odds

The winning percentage implied by sports betting represents the probability of an outcome suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for bettors to evaluate the probability of an event occurring based on the odds offered by bookmakers.

Projected win percentage, also known as projected win probability, is an ATS.io estimate for determining the probability of a team winning a game or event. This projection is usually based on several factors, such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Betting Preview

On June 2, 2024, the New York Mets will face the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citi Field. The Mets, who are currently having a terrible season with a 24-34 record, will play as the home team. The Diamondbacks, who are also struggling this season with a 26-32 record, will be the visiting team. This National League matchup promises an interesting battle between the two teams.

The Mets are projected to start left-handed pitcher José Quintana, who has had a challenging season so far. According to our advanced statistics Power Rankings, Quintana is ranked as the 197th best starting pitcher in MLB among approximately 350 pitchers. On the other hand, the Diamondbacks are expected to start right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, who has performed above average this season, ranking as the 78th best starting pitcher.

In their last game, the Mets faced the Diamondbacks and unfortunately lost by a score of 10-5. The Mets had a Moneyline closing price of -125, indicating the game was expected to be close. Similarly, the Diamondbacks had a Moneyline closing price of +105, suggesting a close matchup.

The Mets’ offense ranks 19th in the MLB this season, while the Diamondbacks’ offense ranks slightly higher at 14th. However, the Mets have struggled with their batting average, ranking at 24th in the league, while the Diamondbacks have a better ranking of 11th. Both teams have shown average performance in terms of home runs and stolen bases.

As for the pitching matchup, Quintana has started 11 games this year with a 1-5 win-loss record and a 5.06 ERA. However, his 4.49 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better in the future. Pfaadt, on the other hand, has started 11 games with a 2-4 win/loss record and a 4.16 ERA. His 3.65 xFIP also indicates that he has been a bit unlucky and could improve in future outings.

THE BAT The current moneyline odds also indicate a close matchup, with both teams having an implied 50% chance of winning.

Based on current odds, the Mets have a team implied total average of 4.25 runs, while the Diamondbacks have the same team implied total average. THE BAT

Arizona Diamondbacks Quick Summary:

Because ground ball hitters have a notable advantage over fly ball pitchers, Brandon Pfaadt and his 39.7% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a problematic situation today when facing 0 opposing GB batsmen.

• This primarily has to do with how the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch path, and can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value that few are considering.

This year, there has been a decline in Corbin Carroll’s velocity with his Statcast sprint speed dropping from 30.05 feet/sec last year to 29.3 feet/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can’t overcome ground balls, fewer extra-base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen ranks ninth worst among all teams in baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and increases the game’s runs.

Quick takes New York Mets:

Jose Quintana has a split reverse platoon and should get help facing 8 opposing hitters today.

• A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e., a right-handed pitcher will perform better against a left-handed hitter). Maintaining this lead against multiple hitters can have a big impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on a given day.

Extreme fly ball hitters like Starling Marte generally hit better against extreme ground ball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.

• This primarily has to do with how the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch path, and can create improved performance in all categories and hidden value that few are considering.

Mark Vientos hits many of his fly balls to center field (39.1% – 93rd percentile) and is a great rival for the park considering that today he will hit towards the shallowest CF fences in baseball.

• This player’s skill set matches particularly well with the park he is in today, which can lead to better than usual performance.

gaming trends

• The New York Mets have reached Team Total Over in 30 of their last 52 games (+4.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• The Arizona Diamondbacks have reached Team Total Under in 23 of their last 39 games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)
• José Quintana has reached Low Strikeouts in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.25 Units / 65% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs New York Mets Prediction

Final score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.6 vs New York Mets 4.29

Visit the MLB Picks and Predictions section for the rest of today’s games.