Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction, Preview and Odds

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres game details

  • Date: July 5, 2024
  • Event: Petco Park
  • Starting pitchers:

    • Slade Cecconi – D-Backs
    • Randy Vasquez – Parents

Betting odds

Money line: D-Backs -110, Padres -110
Running line: D-Backs 1.5 -200, Padres -1.5 170
Total Over/Under: 8.5-120

Odds of victory between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres

Implied Win Percentage: Projected Win Percentage:
Arizona Diamondbacks – 50% Arizona Diamondbacks – 47.73%
San Diego Padres – 50% San Diego Padres – 52.27%

The implied win percentage in sports betting represents the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It is a way for punters to measure the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by bookmakers.

Projected win percentage, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by to determine the likelihood of a team winning a match or event. This projection is typically based on a variety of factors, including team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Betting Preview

As the San Diego Padres prepare to face the Arizona Diamondbacks at Petco Park on July 5, 2024, both teams are coming off wins. The Padres, who have a 48-43 record, are having an above-average season and sit in third place in the NL West. The Diamondbacks, with a 43-44 record, are having an average season and sit in fourth place in the division.

The Padres’ offense has been a key strength, ranking 10th in MLB overall, second in batting average and ninth in home runs. Led by Jurickson Profar, who boasts a .317 batting average and .893 OPS, the Padres’ bats have been potent. Profar has recorded 56 RBIs and 12 home runs this season. Recently, Jackson Merrill has been on fire, hitting .346 with a 1.000 OPS over the past week.

On the mound, the Padres will start Randy Vasquez. Vasquez, a right-hander, has struggled this season with a 4.88 ERA and a 2-4 record. His advanced metrics, including a 6.64 ERA, suggest he has gotten lucky and could get worse. Vasquez is projected to allow 2.7 earned runs and strike out 3.6 batters in 5.0 innings today, which are below-average projections.

The Diamondbacks’ offense, which ranks 11th in MLB, has been solid but unspectacular. Christian Walker has been their standout player, with a .271 batting average and .871 OPS. Walker has totaled 22 homers and 62 RBIs this season, and has been on a roll of late with a .542 batting average and 5 homers in his last six games.

Slade Cecconi will take the mound for Arizona. Cecconi has a 5.81 ERA, but his 4.41 xFIP suggests he’s been down on his luck. He’s projected to pitch 5.1 innings, allowing 2.6 earned runs and striking out 3.6 batters. Despite his struggles, Cecconi could perform better than his ERA indicates.

The Padres’ bullpen ranks ninth in the Advanced Stats Power Rankings, in contrast to the Diamondbacks’ bullpen, which ranks 21st. This disparity could play a crucial role in the outcome of the game.

Betting markets have the Padres as slight favorites with a -120 moneyline, implying a 52% win probability. THE BAT X, MLB’s leading projection system, gives the Diamondbacks a 51% win probability, suggesting it will be a close contest. With the Padres’ solid offense and superior bullpen, they have a slight edge in this National League West matchup.

Brief comments on the Arizona Diamondbacks:

Slade Cecconi is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.9% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching at #4 in HR in MLB in this game.

  • This pitcher’s skills don’t match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which could lead to poorer than usual performance.

Ketel Marte has been on a roll lately, increasing his seasonal exit velocity from 93.3 mph to 97.1 mph in the past week’s games.

  • Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of a home run or of the ball landing in hittable territory before a fielder can get to it.

According to THE BAT projection system, the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks 10th among all Major League Baseball teams.

  • Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and increases the runs in a game.

San Diego Padres Quick Facts:

Considering the 1.3 gap between Randy Vasquez’s 5.57 K/9 and his estimated 6.87 K/9 actual talent (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year when it comes to strikeouts and is expected to perform better in future games.

  • Pitchers who underperform should be expected to pitch better in the future, which can create value in K prop overs if lines weigh too heavily on fortunate underperformance to date.

As far as his wOBA and overall offense go, David Peralta has been pretty unlucky since the start of last season. His .287 mark is considerably below the Statcast-based expected wOBA (xwOBA) version of the leading projection system (THE BAT X), which is .333.

  • xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA.

Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his fly balls to center field (41.4% — 100th percentile) and is a great candidate for the park considering he will be hitting toward the second-shallow fence in center field in today’s game.

  • This player’s skillset is a particularly good match for the park he’s in today, which could lead to better-than-usual performances.

Gaming Trends

  • The San Diego Padres have reached Game Total Over in 21 of their last 33 home games (+8.10 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have reached the first five-inning total (F5) in 20 of their last 31 games (+7.90 units / 21% ROI)
  • Kyle Higashioka has reached the Singles Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+7.85 Units / 19% ROI)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres Prediction

Final score: Arizona Diamondbacks 4.76 vs. San Diego Padres 4.73

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