July 4: Heat alert that could bring severe thunderstorms at night

July 4: Heat alert that could bring severe thunderstorms at night

July 4: Heat alert that could bring severe thunderstorms at night

Wednesday afternoon, July 3, 2024

Most years we might expect the weather to be hot and humid on July 4th. This year, it may be more noticeable after our nice break with an abrupt increase in humidity. This holiday will have classic weather: uncomfortable in the morning and dangerous for some in the afternoon.

Temperatures will reach the upper 90s and heat index values ​​will approach 105ºF in metropolitan areas, prompting a heat advisory in some (not all) areas.

This may bring additional fuel for the next weather system that will bring strong thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. There is a marginal risk of some becoming severe… and possibly affecting late barbecues and some fireworks.

Below is a quick look at the latest radar simulation “hint” for the timeline and location of a developing storm line.

Weather forecast for Tuesday night

Weather Wednesday night July 3rd


This is focused on central and southern Maryland and parts of northern Virginia around Washington DC.

July 3 Heat Advisory Thursday Independence Day

Severe storm risk according to NOAA

The marginal risk is level 1 out of 5 and there is no need to worry.

However, given the high heat and humidity, this is fuel for storms to overshoot… and since we’ve seen this trend lately, I’d be inclined to believe it’s possible some late BBQs and fireworks displays could be affected.

Morning temperatures at 6am

Weather temperatures for Thursday morning, July 4th

Temperatures at 4 pm

Weather temperatures for Thursday, July 4th in the afternoon

Heat index at 4 pm

Heat index for Thursday afternoon, July 4

Radar simulation: 2:00 p.m. to midnight


The simulation suggests thunderstorms will form over the mountains of Pennsylvania into western Maryland. This could develop into a continuous line moving southeast and into Maryland in the evening.

Peak activity could move across the Baltimore metropolitan area and northeastern Maryland between 7:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. and move slowly, potentially bringing local flash flooding and damaging winds.

July 4th weather storm radar simulation Thursday afternoon


4 pm

July 4th Weather Radar Simulation, Thursday at 4 p.m.

6 pm

July 4th Weather Radar Simulation, Thursday at 6:00 p.m.

7 pm

July 4th Weather Radar Simulation, Thursday at 7 p.m.

8 pm

July 4th Weather Radar Simulation, Thursday 8 p.m.

21:00 hours

July 4th Weather Storm Radar Simulation, Thursday 9 p.m.

10:00 p.m.

July 4th Weather Radar Simulation, Thursday at 10 p.m.

Looking to the future:

Thursday afternoon to Sunday afternoon

The next wave of heat, humidity and storms will occur on Independence Day and into the warmer weekend!


Beryl’s final landfall could occur in southern Texas near Houston. This will be farther inland, but will affect the large-scale pattern, helping to introduce a more humid air mass into the mid-Atlantic. This will increase the likelihood of daily thunderstorms without any organized phenomenon. This means there will be daily thunderstorms that will appear at any time in the afternoon and evening.

Weather forecast for the stormy weekend of July 3

Sunday afternoon

Beryl Sunday weather forecast for July 3

Monday afternoon

Weather forecast for July 3 Beryl Monday

7 day forecast

Bottom line for the summer forecast: Hot and humid with a chance of thunderstorms every day. Most of them will be scattered and difficult to time and plan for your location. It’s something to keep in mind for your outdoor plans.

Weather forecast for Wednesday, July 3

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I realize there are some spelling and grammar errors and other occasional glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even any computer glitches I may overlook. I’ve made a few public statements over the years, but if you’re new here, you may have missed something: I have dyslexia and discovered it during my sophomore year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from earning my degree in meteorology and being the first to earn the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region.

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