Spaghetti models of Hurricane Beryl show a new threat to Texas

Spaghetti models of Hurricane Beryl show a new threat to Texas

Spaghetti models of Hurricane Beryl show a new threat to Texas

Some spaghetti models for Hurricane Beryl show the potential for impacts from the storm to hit Texas this weekend.

Beryl became a hurricane on Saturday, becoming the most significant eastbound Atlantic hurricane of June. The storm experienced rapid intensification and became a Category 4 hurricane as soon as its winds reached 130 miles per hour.

The system temporarily weakened to Category 3 strength before strengthening again, with maximum winds of 150 miles per hour documented as it made landfall in the Windward Islands on Monday morning.

Since Monday, Beryl has continued to strengthen and is now classified as a Category 5 with maximum sustained winds of 165 miles per hour.

Hurricane Beryl's spaghetti models show a new impact
Water crashes onto a road near Galveston Bay, Texas, outside of Houston, during Hurricane Harvey in 2017. Hurricane Beryl is now classified as a Category 5 and some impacts could be felt in Texas…


Spaghetti models, or computer models that illustrate possible storm paths, show the storm hitting Jamaica Wednesday afternoon as a Category 3 hurricane.

The current forecast projects it passing through the Cayman Islands and then making landfall again south of Cancun, Mexico, as a Category 1 hurricane and then moving into the Bay of Campeche, where it is expected to weaken to a tropical storm. However, some models anticipate impacts in southern and southeastern Texas and potentially the Louisiana coast by this weekend.

AccuWeather issued a warning that “Beryl could bring some rain and wind impacts to South Texas this weekend, with a lower risk of impacts in Houston and points east,” according to a recent forecast.

AccuWeather forecasters said there is “a low chance of direct impacts on Beryl in the United States,” with the highest chances around Corpus Christi, Texas, but that torrential rains are possible, particularly in southern Texas if the storm makes landfall in northern Mexico.

“It’s very important to note that if high pressure in the Southeast weakens, that could allow the storm to move farther north and potentially directly impact the Gulf Coast,” AccuWeather senior hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva said.

A rip current advisory has already been issued for parts of southern Texas. National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologist Israel Gonzalez said earlier Week of news that hurricanes can cause rip currents hundreds of miles away.

Week of news reached the NWS office in Brownsville, Texas, by phone for comment.

Other forecasters are urging people to be on guard if the storm changes track.

“Looking from Texas or even Louisiana, the threat level still appears *low*; but the model guidance (Euro&GFS Ensembles) shows why we can’t rule out a scenario where this system impacts the northwest Gulf Coast,” Scot Pilié, a meteorologist in New Orleans, posted on X, formerly Twitter.

WFLA-TV Chief Meteorologist Jeff Berardelli also shared a post about the storm’s potential path.

“Beryl is heading toward the western Caribbean and should weaken a bit before passing near Jamaica. Florida will be protected by a ridge of high pressure and a heat dome, but that dome will shift, possibly allowing the storm to approach northern Mexico or Texas at greater distances. Worth watching!” he posted on X.